Voters believe Chancellor John Healey's Budget will leave them personally worse off, according to new polling by Lord Ashcroft published on Tuesday 10 November 2026. Overall, voters said the Budget would make them worse off by a 22-point margin, with 42 per cent saying it would make no difference to them.

The poll also found that Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Healey lead Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith by 12 points on who would do a better job of managing the economy. That is a sharp turnaround from the end of May, when Badenoch and then shadow chancellor Mel Stride led Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves by five points on the same question.

What voters remembered from the Budget

The Budget was the most noticed recent political story in the poll, mentioned unprompted by more than half of all respondents. The measures people recalled most were the removal of standing charges on gas bills, tax rises, the £100 payment towards energy bills for households in Council Tax bands A to D, and the absence of cuts to welfare spending.

The minimum wage increase, the reversal of planned changes to the cash ISA allowance announced by Rachel Reeves, and higher taxes on banks were most often mentioned by Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. Other tax rises and the absence of welfare cuts were most often named by Conservative-leaning voters.

Only voters who backed Labour in 2024 were more likely to say the Budget would make them better off, and then by only two points, with nearly half saying it would make no real difference. Asked about the effect on the country as a whole, people were more likely to say the Budget was bad rather than good for Britain, by a nine-point margin, although 45 per cent said it would make no difference.

Burnham leads Badenoch as best prime minister

Asked who would make the best prime minister, voters chose Burnham over Badenoch by a 26-point margin, with Nigel Farage third on 14 per cent. In a head-to-head contest, Burnham led Badenoch by 45 per cent to 27 per cent. Voters also said Burnham was doing a good job rather than a bad job by a 15-point margin, compared with a three-point margin for Badenoch.

On voting intention, the poll put Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform UK on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent. Voters were evenly divided on whether Britain needs radical change or steady, stable management, while Reform voters backed radical change by a 60-point margin.

The poll's method differs from most voting-intention surveys: rather than asking which party people would pick in a hypothetical election tomorrow, Lord Ashcroft asks how likely people think they are to vote for each party at the next election, on a scale from zero to 100. The published shares are drawn from those who put their chance of voting for one party at 50 or more out of 100, weighted by likelihood to turn out. Read the full polling write-up on Conservative Home and the NewsOneUSA report.

Frequently asked questions

What did voters remember most from the Budget? The removal of standing charges on gas bills, tax rises, the £100 energy bill payment for Council Tax bands A to D, and the absence of welfare cuts.

Who leads on managing the economy? Andy Burnham and John Healey lead Kemi Badenoch and Andrew Griffith by 12 points, a 17-point swing since the end of May.