The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates to 2.50% on Wednesday 28 October 2026, its first move in a year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The decision is due at 13:45 GMT, alongside the bank's Monetary Policy Report, and had not been announced at the time of writing.

In the poll, conducted on 21 to 23 October, 19 of 34 economists, or 56%, expected a 25-basis-point rise from 2.25% to 2.50%. A majority also expected a further rise by the end of March. That marks a sharp reversal from the previous poll, when 80% expected rates to stay on hold at 2.25% until the end of 2026.

Why expectations flipped

Canadian inflation reached 3.1% in September, just above the bank's 1% to 3% target range, and its business-outlook survey showed sharply rising inflation expectations. Remarks by Governor Tiff Macklem were read by markets as a hint towards a rise, and futures pricing moved from around a 30% chance of an October hike to around 75%.

This article is a preview: it reports what economists expect, not the decision itself. The outcome, due after 13:45 GMT, may differ from the poll consensus.

Sources: Reuters and XTB market analysis.