Around 650 more offenders will leave jails in England and Wales today, Tuesday 10 November, in the third phase of the Government's early release scheme to ease the prison population crisis.

The group will include offenders serving sentences of up to three years and two months. Under the new rules, they are leaving jail after serving no more than a third of their sentence behind bars, rather than a half.

At least 1,350 offenders have already left jail early since 1 October under the first two waves of the scheme. Officials project that at least 2,500 will have been let out by the end of the year to spend two-thirds of their sentence on licence in the community.

Longer sentences to follow

Today's third stage continues the process of releasing batches of offenders serving increasingly long sentences. The releases will culminate next June with offenders serving more than 12 years.

The cohort leaving today will include people convicted of affray, which carries a maximum sentence of three years, as well as burglary and fraud. The Ministry of Justice's own estimates put the third tranche at around 650 releases.

Offenders convicted of more than 70 offences are exempt from the earlier release scheme, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences and those serving life terms.

Prisons still near capacity

Weekly prison population figures show the early release programme is having an impact on the population crisis inside jails, for now. On Monday, the latest data showed there were 86,982 people in jail, with enough spare spaces to take in 2,076 additional offenders.

Those being released should typically expect to be electronically tagged and subject to other monitoring conditions for the second third of their sentence. Once outside, they will be monitored by probation officers, who are responsible for making sure offenders take part in courses or other programmes and keep to their licence conditions, which can include bans on entering certain areas and contacting victims.

Probation under strain

The probation service union, Napo, has previously said the releases have put enormous strain on its members, who are charged with monitoring the offenders in the community. Its members have been balloted over recent weeks on potential strike action over pay and conditions, and the result of that poll is expected on Friday.

The Government has offered probation officers a 5% pay rise, while the union had demanded 12% as part of a plan to make up for loss of earnings caused by cuts from 2010. The Ministry of Justice says the offer is fair, has been accepted by two other unions, and is twinned with a £700m investment in probation to recruit 1,300 extra officers and roll out AI tools to cut the workload of monitoring offenders.

Victims' concerns

Victims' groups and survivors have also raised concerns. Refuge, which supports survivors of domestic abuse, told the BBC last month that perpetrators of such abuse were among those being released.

The Government has not yet published any figures for the rate of recall of prisoners to jails for breaching their licence conditions. The most up-to-date statistics show that 12,338 offenders were sent back to jail for breaching their terms between April and June. That was 12% higher than the year before, but a decrease on the first three months of the year.

Rehabilitation experts say recalls are often more likely to be linked to the offender failing to keep to appointments or living at a specific address. Around a fifth of recalls are for a new offence.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has previously criticised the scheme, saying she was worried about dangerous people being let out on the street when they have not served their sentence and have not been rehabilitated.

An earlier early release programme introduced by the Conservatives saw more than 10,000 prisoners freed early between October 2023 and September 2024.