The European Union's next long-term budget does not have to be agreed by Christmas, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda has said, revealing for the first time that EU leaders have a fallback date of 4 February if the December push fails.

Clinching a deal before the end of the year is not a do-or-die question as long as the EU's 2028 to 2034 budget is agreed by February next year, Nauseda told the Brussels newsletter Rapporteur in an interview published on Monday 9 November. With elections in Spain this month and some capitals taking hardline positions, getting a deal over the line in 2026 is "very, very ambitious", he said.

The remarks break with months of public insistence from EU leaders that the budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework or MFF, must be settled by December. They also give the first public account of the contingency planning now under way in Brussels.

A race against the calendar

An extraordinary summit on 26 and 27 November will mark the start of a final push led by European Council President Antonio Costa to secure a deal by the end of the year, which in practical terms means by Christmas. A further summit starting on Wednesday 16 December is presented as the finish line, and Costa's office has told EU leaders to pack extra shirts in anticipation of working through the weekend and into the start of Europe's festive period, according to diplomats cited by Rapporteur.

But Nauseda has now revealed a fall-back date: 4 February, the day before EU leaders are already scheduled to meet in Belgium for a special summit on the economy at Alden Biesen castle. "I would not regard it as some terribly fundamental matter whether we finish in mid-December or on 4 February," he said.

Nauseda is closely involved in the EU's contingency planning for the MFF, as Lithuania takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 January 2027. His intervention carries weight because the country holding the presidency will be responsible for steering the talks through whatever deadline is eventually chosen.

Why February matters

The February window is important because it comes before elections in France in April and May, and the prospect of Marine Le Pen winning on a platform of blocking the budget unless French contributions are halved. A deal struck in February would still leave time for the legislative work needed to have the budget running by 1 January 2028, Nauseda's argument runs, while a deal after the French elections could be far harder to reach.

The scale of the disagreement explains why leaders are struggling. The German-led group of budget-conscious member states, often called the frugals, is demanding cuts of "several hundred billion euros" to the European Commission's original proposal of almost 2 trillion euros, according to Rapporteur's account of the interview.

Until now, most member states have publicly backed the December deadline. Agence Europe reported on 29 October that the vast majority of member states were convinced they needed to conclude an agreement by the end of the year, and that a compromise at the European Council meeting on 17 and 18 December was considered the most likely outcome. Costa is due to present a new negotiating proposal in the coming weeks, after an earlier compromise proposal was largely rejected.

Three deadlines, one Christmas

EU leaders have set themselves three tasks to complete by Christmas: agreeing the next long-term budget, resolving how to finance Ukraine next year, and replacing Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank. Costa faces all three at once, and the budget is the most complex of them.

The Council of the EU's own forward look for 9 to 22 November lists the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting on 9 November, where finance ministers were invited to reach political agreement on the tobacco taxation package and take decisions under the stability and growth pact, and a budget council on 10 November to prepare the conciliation committee that aims to agree the EU's annual budget for 2027.

That annual budget is separate from the long-term MFF, but the two are linked: the 2027 budget is the seventh and final annual budget under the current 2021-2027 framework, and the conciliation procedure for it runs until midnight on Monday 16 November.

Nauseda's disclosure does not mean the December deadline has been abandoned. Costa is still aiming for a deal by the end of the year, and the extraordinary summit on 26 November is designed to force the pace. But for the first time, a head of state involved in the planning has said publicly that missing Christmas would not be fatal, and that 4 February is the date that really matters.