Europe's benchmark gas price has risen above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since December 2022, as traders priced in tighter winter supply and rising Middle East escalation risk. The Dutch TTF contract, the reference price for much of Europe's gas trading, moved from around €97.50 in morning trading to above €100 in the afternoon on Wednesday 28 October. Two afternoon reports put the level at about €100.24 and €100.30 for November delivery, confirming the crossing.

Low storage meets the heating season

The timing matters. Gas storage across the European Union was reported at roughly 75% full, below the five-year average and, on one measure, the lowest for this point in the season since records began in 2009. With temperatures expected to fall, heating demand is about to rise just as buyers compete for scarcer Gulf cargoes. Only limited Gulf liquefied natural gas is reaching the market because of the Iran war, forcing European and Asian buyers to compete for the same shipments. In Britain, contracts also rose, extending gains for a sixth consecutive session.

Why Gulf disruption reaches European bills

High wholesale gas does not stay in trading rooms. It feeds into power prices and industrial costs, and it leaves households and factories exposed if cold weather arrives while storage is thin. The last time prices were at this level, Europe was in its 2022 energy crisis after losing most Russian pipeline gas. Today's trigger is different — war-related disruption to Gulf LNG and shipping — but the market effect is familiar: buyers pay more for security of supply. Traders will now watch storage, temperatures and Gulf shipping to judge whether €100 is a peak or a new floor.

Sources: Wall Street Journal Market Talk via Morningstar, Financial Times via SRNA.