Gold steadied back above $4,000 an ounce on Monday 26 October 2026, recovering from its slide below that level the previous Friday. The move was modest, but its timing mattered: it came at the start of a week dominated by the US Federal Reserve and fresh inflation data.

Oil's fall gives gold breathing room

The immediate trigger was energy. As oil prices eased by roughly 2% on hopes of calmer US-Iran tensions, some of the inflation pressure that had weighed on gold last week also eased. That helped buyers step back in after gold had fallen to around $3,975 on Friday, its lowest in more than three months. Intraday reports on Monday put spot gold in a range from about $4,009 to about $4,019, with later reports of closes in the $4,010 to $4,026 area, so the recovery should be read as a range, not one exact close.

Wednesday's Fed decision is the next test

The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday 28 October. Markets broadly expect rates to be left unchanged, so the statement and guidance about December will matter more than the decision itself. A firmer tone on inflation could push yields higher and pressure gold again, while a softer message could help it hold above $4,000.

Thursday's PCE data follows

Attention then turns to Thursday 29 October, when the US releases September personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hotter reading could reinforce expectations of a December rate rise, while a cooler one could ease them. Until those two releases land, gold is likely to trade cautiously around $4,000, with oil headlines and the dollar adding to the swings.

Source: Reuters