Gold prices edged higher on Monday 26 October 2026, climbing back above $4,000 an ounce as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,009.87 an ounce by 0342 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session, according to Reuters.

US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,023.50. Bullion posted a 4% weekly fall on Friday, its steepest weekly decline since June, after oil's surge had fuelled worries about inflation and the path of interest rates. A later Reuters update put spot gold at $4,010.51 by 0544 GMT.

Relief rally, not a change of outlook

Analysts described Monday's move as relief linked to oil rather than a broader change in sentiment. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, was quoted as saying the jump was mostly symptomatic of relief provided by a lower oil price, but one that could easily be capped as markets position for the Federal Open Market Committee decision in a couple of days' time.

That caution is reflected in rate expectations: traders largely expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged this week, while expectations for a hike in December were put at 75% in the early Reuters copy and 77% in a later update, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Higher rates tend to diminish the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

What comes next this week

The Fed's policy meeting runs on 27-28 October, and US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the gauge the central bank watches most closely as it targets 2% inflation, is due the next day. Until those releases land, gold's direction is likely to stay tied to oil prices and to what the Fed signals about December.