Analysts have trimmed their average gold forecast for 2026 for a second quarter in a row, while lifting their view for 2027, according to a Reuters survey published on 27 October. The split verdict suggests near-term pressure, rather than a collapse in the longer case for holding gold.

Why the near-term view weakened

The survey of 30 analysts and traders put the median 2026 average at $4,495 an ounce, slightly below the $4,509 expected three months earlier. For 2027, the median rose to $4,650, up from $4,610 in the previous poll. That contrast matters: forecasters are pushing recovery further out, not abandoning it. Gold reached $5,595 an ounce in January, the survey report notes, before falling back to around $4,000. Higher Treasury yields, a firmer US dollar and the expectation that interest rates stay elevated for longer have all reduced the appeal of an asset that pays no income. On 28 October, spot gold was again softer, trading around $4,045 to $4,050 an ounce in morning and early-afternoon reports, as traders waited for the Federal Reserve decision due at 18:00 GMT that day. No outcome is claimed here: at the time of those reports the decision was still ahead, with US personal-consumption expenditure data due on Thursday also in focus.

What could support a recovery

Forecasters still point to steady buying by central banks and physical demand, including from India and China, as a floor under prices. The argument in the survey is that those structural supports outlast the current rate and currency headwinds, even if they cannot prevent a period of consolidation first. Silver tells a similar story in miniature: analysts expect it to average $70.30 an ounce in 2026 but $66.75 in 2027, against a current price near $53, with weaker photovoltaic demand cited as a drag.

Sources: Reuters via Q1019FM and Kitco News (Reuters wire).