Senior diplomats from across the Middle East have warned that a renewed round of fighting between the United States and Iran would be more dangerous and more destructive than earlier rounds, as Gulf governments say they are preparing for the worst while still pushing for diplomacy.

The warnings were delivered at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, held from 30 October to 1 November. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said a second round of conflict would lead nowhere, adding that while hostilities can be started unilaterally, no single state can control what follows once war begins.

UAE: hoping for diplomacy, braced for conflict

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, said Washington and Tehran remained far apart and that if those positions were not narrowed, the region had to worry about the worst-case scenario. He said the UAE hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough but was braced for the worst.

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Al Budaiwi struck a similar balance, saying Gulf states had always called for dialogue but that diplomacy needed partners who responded in kind.

Why the timing worries the region

Regional officials fear, as reported by the Financial Times on 2 November, that a new, high-intensity campaign could follow the US midterm elections on 3 November, potentially targeting Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, power plants and other infrastructure. That is a stated fear in the region, not a confirmed military plan, and Tehran has vowed a forceful response to any new attack.

Gulf governments also fear their own energy sites, airports and seawater desalination plants could again be targeted.

Sources

Stockbiz / Financial Times: Middle East fears renewed US-Iran fighting, prepares for worst-case scenario
Abu Dhabi Voice / AFP: UAE hopes for US-Iran peace but braces for conflict, Gargash warns