The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has set out five key questions for judging the Milburn Review of young people and work, which is due to publish its final report this month.

The review, led by former health secretary Alan Milburn, is examining why almost one million young people are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The IFS said the share of 16- to 24-year-olds in that position rose from 11.5% in the second quarter of 2019 to 13.0% in the second quarter of 2026, the highest since 2014 and equal to 981,000 young people, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Five tests for the review

The IFS said proposals should recognise the diversity of young people’s circumstances, balance support for young people with incentives for firms to hire them, and deliver at scale. Returning to the 2019 NEET rate would mean around 100,000 more young people in education, employment or training; matching the Netherlands would mean around 500,000 more. It also asked who would gain and lose, and whether the reforms offer value for money.

Jobs and training under strain

Falling youth employment has been the biggest factor behind the rise, the IFS said, with the share of 16- to 24-year-olds in payrolled employment falling 4.3 percentage points in the three years to December 2025, from 54.9% to 50.6%. Apprenticeship starts by under-25s fell 35% between 2016-17 and 2024-25. The Youth Guarantee is expected to create around 50,000 additional jobs a year, but the IFS noted the earlier Kickstart scheme delivered 163,000 placements against an ambition of 250,000.

What happens next

The review is expected to recommend reforms across benefits, health, skills and employment. The IFS warned that paying for them will mean difficult choices, and said extra borrowing to fund permanent day-to-day spending would be hard to justify.