India can seal the five-match one-day series with two games to spare when they face New Zealand in the third ODI at Seddon Park in Hamilton on Tuesday. The match starts at 3pm local time, 7.30am in India, and Shubman Gill's side lead 2-0 after two rain-affected wins in Auckland and Wellington.

A win in Hamilton would give India an unassailable 3-0 lead and mirror what they did in the Twenty20 series on the same tour. A New Zealand win would keep the series alive heading to Mount Maunganui, where the final two matches will be played. The weather, which has shaped both games so far, is again expected to play a part.

Two rain-hit wins put India 2-0 up

India won the first ODI at Eden Park by five wickets after bowling New Zealand out for 185, with Virat Kohli making 74. The second ODI in Wellington on 7 November was tighter. New Zealand were dismissed for 134 in 41 overs of a match already reduced to 47 overs a side, and India were 113 for seven after 26 overs when rain returned. India were four runs ahead on the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern par score and were declared winners by four runs.

India's bowling has been the difference in the series. Gurnoor Brar has taken seven wickets in the two games, three at Eden Park and then a career-best four for 30 in Wellington. New Zealand have not passed 41 overs in either match, and batting has been hard work on seam-friendly pitches prepared after a wet spring across New Zealand. Daryl Mitchell, with 83 runs, is New Zealand's leading scorer in the series, just ahead of Kohli on 81, which shows how difficult batting has been.

Gill's farewell before the Tests

The Hamilton match is Shubman Gill's final ODI of the tour. He leaves after the third game to prepare for the two-Test series, which starts at the Basin Reserve in Wellington on 19 November, and Shreyas Iyer will captain India for the last two ODIs at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui on 13 and 15 November.

New Zealand's preparations have been hit by injuries. Lockie Ferguson has been ruled out of the final two ODIs with a right-calf tear, while Blair Tickner will miss the next two matches after a blow to his helmet in Wellington put him under the mandatory seven-day stand-down protocol. Devon Conway is out of the series, and Rachin Ravindra and Mark Chapman are missing the one-day games. New Zealand have won 11 consecutive home ODI series since their defeat to India in 2019, a run now under serious threat.

Hamilton's poor record for India

Seddon Park has not been a happy ground for India. They have won only one of their eight one-day internationals against New Zealand there, and their last win at the venue came on 11 March 2009, when Mahendra Singh Dhoni led them to an 84-run win under the Duckworth-Lewis method. The most recent visit, in January 2019, ended with India bowled out for 92, Trent Boult taking five for 21, and New Zealand winning by eight wickets in 14.4 overs.

India have also won the toss in both matches so far, and the toss has mattered: in these conditions the chasing side knows its target, while the side batting first has had to guess what a good score looks like on an underprepared pitch. In Wellington, India scored 78 of their 113 runs in boundaries, while New Zealand managed only 60 of their 134 in boundaries.

Rain likely to have the final say

The forecast for Tuesday is poor. Hamilton was wet on Saturday, more rain is forecast for Monday and for match day, and Seddon Park head groundsman Karl Johnson has said the forecast is not good for either day. The probability of rain is around 83 per cent at 1pm local time and still roughly 68 per cent at the 3pm start, with total rainfall across Tuesday expected to exceed 25mm.

Ground staff had only half a day to prepare the pitch before rain arrived and forced India to train indoors, and the surface is expected to spend long spells under the covers. A shortened contest decided by the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method looks the most likely outcome, and if persistent rain prevents a ball from being bowled the match will be abandoned, as there is no reserve day in a bilateral series.