Japan's economy is expected to have expanded only marginally in the July to September quarter, as a recovery in business investment was largely offset by weaker household spending and external demand, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday.

Growth forecast at 0.3 percent

The median forecast of 16 economists put real gross domestic product growth at an annualised 0.3 percent in the third quarter, slowing from a 1.4 percent expansion in April to June. Without annualisation, the July to September growth rate was estimated at 0.1 percent. Even at that slower pace, the economy would remain on track for a fourth straight quarterly increase.

Capital expenditure was seen growing 1.5 percent, rebounding from a 0.9 percent decline in the previous quarter. In contrast, private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, was expected to have fallen 0.2 percent, which would be its first contraction in seven quarters.

Households under pressure from rising prices

Analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities said in a note that service consumption was firm in July to September, but durable goods consumption contracted because of policy-related factors, while non-durable goods consumption was weak because of the negative impact of rising inflation.

Net external demand, or exports minus imports, was likely to have subtracted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth, after adding 0.5 percentage points in the previous quarter. Analysts said external demand was likely to have turned negative as imports rose, reflecting progress in securing alternative crude oil supplies.

The figures are forecasts, not official data. Japan's government will release the preliminary third-quarter GDP figures on 16 November. Growth will be among the factors the Bank of Japan considers when deciding whether to raise interest rates further, and many analysts expect the next increase as soon as next month.