The number of young people not in education, employment or training will rise by 280,000 to reach 1.26 million by 2031 unless action is taken, according to new analysis seen by The Independent.

That would mean one in six 16 to 24-year-olds out of work and education within five years. The analysis, prepared for the Liberal Democrats and based on former cabinet minister Alan Milburn’s review, estimates the crisis already costs the country £125 billion a year. The extra young people would add around £36 billion a year to that bill unless the government acts to “cut off the NEET pipeline at source”, the prime minister has warned.

Nearly a million already affected

Almost one million young people — 981,000 — are already NEET, up 30,000 in a year. Milburn’s interim report, published in May, found the system already has the data to spot those at risk, but lacks the architecture, funding and accountability to act on it.

The report warned that without change the NEET rate could rise from one in eight young people to one in six within five years. Around six in 10 NEET young people have never had a job, and the review found that two in three say the curriculum did not prepare them for work. It also identified a hidden cohort of about 314,000 young people who are NEET and claiming no benefits, making them invisible to the systems meant to help them.

Milburn, a former health secretary, is leading the government’s review into young people and work. His final report, containing recommendations for reform, is expected next week.

Lib Dems call for 100 hours of work experience

The Liberal Democrats are calling on the government to introduce a guarantee of 100 hours of work experience and a career coach for every young person, so everyone leaving school is equipped with the skills to succeed. The party says every young person should be guaranteed at least 100 hours of jobs, career-focused enrichment or volunteering, plus personalised career coaching from “a real person” who meets them several times a year to help build a five-year plan for life after education. The proposal draws on practice in the Netherlands and Germany and would be delivered in partnership with the third sector.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: “Every teacher knows a child that started secondary school bright and eager, but over the years drifted to the back of the class. Too often, no notice, and they slip through the cracks to become one of the nearly one million young people not in education or training.”

“Unless we act now, hundreds of thousands more young people will slip through the cracks, without the education, training or guidance to succeed. Milburn’s report is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to shut down the NEET pipeline at source. Ministers must seize it.”

“A national moral failure”

Education spokeswoman Munira Wilson said: “It is nothing short of a national moral failure that we now have nearly a million young people without jobs or training. We all have a responsibility to give the next generation the same opportunities that were provided to us – but we have not held up our end of the deal. Enough is enough.”

“Our plan is ready to go. 100 hours of real work experience and a real career coach for every young person – we urge the Prime Minister to use this plan so that this is the last generation that ever has to experience a NEETs crisis.”

The party is also calling for A-levels to be reformed into a baccalaureate-style system alongside T-levels and V-levels, so no young person at 14 or 16 is forced down a narrow path that does not suit them.

Government response

A survey by Savanta found 56 per cent of 16 to 24-year-olds have hit major roadblocks in finding work in the past year, and one in five — 19 per cent — has given up looking altogether.

Housing minister Matthew Pennycook admitted the current system for NEETs meant the government was “paying for failure”, and said the focus should be on investing in young people’s futures with intensive support rather than writing cheques and forgetting about them. He said the suggestions “need to be taken as a package and looked at in the round”.

Number 10 said the prime minister “has already been clear that we need fundamental change in how we support young people to grow up in this country”.