Israel’s election has left Benjamin Netanyahu in the lead but without a parliamentary majority, meaning he remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity while coalition talks, or possibly another election, play out. With 70.7 percent of votes counted on the morning of 28 October, his bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties was forecast to win 54 seats, against 47 for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, with parties representing Arab citizens forecast at 19. Later counts put the gap narrower, at 53 to 49, but neither side reached the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset.

No majority, but Netanyahu stays on

In his speech after 3 a.m. local time, Netanyahu called for a strong right-wing national government and raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside US President Donald Trump, describing what he called a singular historical opportunity to remove the threat from Iran. Eisenkot acknowledged that Netanyahu remained in office as caretaker but said he had lost public support and urged him to retire, warning that he might use security for political ends. These seat forecasts are projections from partial counts at different times on 28 October, not a final certified result.

A victory speech aimed at Iran

The result matters beyond Israel’s domestic politics because Trump has also held out the possibility of restarting combat after the US midterm elections on 3 November, and Gulf markets and oil prices have been sensitive to every signal about a new round of fighting. Brent crude was trading at $115 a barrel, up 1 percent, as of 1100 GMT on 28 October in the Reuters report — an intraday level, not a settlement. Any future military action remains a prospect raised by Netanyahu and Trump, not a confirmed decision.

Sources: Reuters Breakingviews, Reuters.