The Office for Budget Responsibility expects UK net migration to fall to 120,000 in the year to mid-2026 and then rise gradually to 230,000 a year by the year to mid-2031. The forecast, published alongside the Budget, says the near-term fall reflects visa restrictions introduced since 2023 and higher emigration after earlier high levels of immigration, particularly among students. Over five years, the average would be about 182,000 a year.

What the numbers do not change

The watchdog explains the later rise mainly as a fading effect: the net outflow of British nationals and EU nationals who arrived under the pre-Brexit immigration regime is expected to lessen gradually. That is an assumption about movement patterns, not a policy announcement, and forecasts of this kind are routinely revised as new migration data arrive. The ONS has separately estimated net migration at 171,000 last year, down sharply from the peak of 944,000 recorded in the year to March 2023.

Why the forecast is contested

Nothing in the forecast alters who can apply for a visa, what salary thresholds apply, or how long any route lasts. Those questions are decided by Immigration Rules and Home Office guidance, not by the OBR. Readers planning an application should check the current GOV.UK guidance for their route rather than relying on a long-term population projection. Migration forecasts carry political weight because they feed into expectations for housing, public services and tax receipts. Some critics argue that even the lower near-term figure is too high, while others point out that the long-run assumption has already been cut from 340,000 a year. The honest reading is narrower: the watchdog sees a dip, then a slow climb back, with wide uncertainty around both.

Sources: BritBrief (OBR forecast), Glasgow Times / PA, Institute for Fiscal Studies.