Oil prices rebounded on Thursday 5 November after a four-day slide, recovering some of Wednesday's steep losses as investors weighed the future course of the US-Israeli war with Iran after the Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.

Brent crude had fallen for a fourth consecutive session early on Thursday, trading around $93.82 after dropping more than 8 per cent on Wednesday to settle at $94.62, its lowest since late August. West Texas Intermediate settled at $88.12 on Wednesday. By 09:37 UTC, Brent was up 0.8 per cent at $95.40 and WTI up 0.1 per cent at $88.23, according to Reuters. By midday Brent was trading at $96.78–$96.88 and WTI at $89.53–$89.70, and by 14:30 GMT Brent had climbed 2.48 per cent to $96.97, with WTI up 1.55 per cent to $89.49, after peaking at about $97.28.

Deal odds cut to 10 per cent

Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed US strikes on Iran to 60 per cent from 65 per cent, but also cut the probability of a deal to 10 per cent from 20 per cent, citing Iran's firm demands. It raised the likelihood of a continued standoff to 30 per cent from 15 per cent, and said an escalation would probably push Brent into a $110 to $125 band.

The physical market remains oversupplied: JPMorgan estimates the global oil market was in surplus by about 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October. US inventories fell and demand was at its highest in a year, according to the EIA. Brent is down about 20 per cent this week, which would be its largest weekly drop since April 2020 if sustained.

Sources: Reuters via LSE, Oil rises as investors weigh uncertainties around Iran war, 5 November 2026; Traders Union, Oil prices rise as Iran conflict risks remain unresolved, 5 November 2026; TalkMarkets, Brent Falls Below $94 On Easing Iran Risk, 5 November 2026.