OPEC crude output moved close to its pre-war level in October, rising by 1.96 million barrels a day to 27.16 million barrels a day, according to OPEC's latest data published on 11 November. That compares with 28.63 million barrels a day in February, before the Iran war began. Saudi Arabia, the group's de facto leader, drove the recovery, raising production to 10.56 million barrels a day from 8.37 million in September. ## How Gulf producers kept exports flowing More than eight months into the conflict, Gulf producers have used alternative pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and cross-country pipelines to keep exports moving despite continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats in the Red Sea. United States military assistance has also helped sustain shipments. Saudi Arabia's crude exports averaged around 7 million barrels a day in October, slightly down from 7.2 million in September but still above the kingdom's 2025 average of 6.2 million, according to tanker-tracking data from Kpler. ## Shipping through Hormuz still far below normal The recovery in output has not restored normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed confirmed oil transits through the strait averaging 4.06 million barrels a day over the past week, compared with 17.1 million barrels a day before the conflict. The figures are preliminary and could be revised higher, but they show how far the key waterway remains from its pre-war flow. ## Demand outlook left unchanged OPEC left its demand forecasts unchanged in its monthly report, saying it expects global oil consumption to increase by 180,000 barrels a day this year and by 2.55 million barrels a day next year. Earlier this month, key members of the wider OPEC+ alliance agreed to keep output stable in December. The group's next full ministerial meeting is scheduled for 29 November, when ministers are due to set output targets for 2027. ## What it means for markets The October figures show supply returning even while the conflict continues, which matters for European buyers because the region depends heavily on imported crude. A separate Bloomberg survey published on 7 November also reported a sharp October recovery in OPEC output led by Saudi Arabia, pointing in the same direction as the OPEC data. With demand forecasts unchanged and output climbing back towards February levels, traders will now watch whether the 29 November meeting keeps production steady or sets a new course for next year.