Pakistan could be redrawn from four provinces into twelve under a proposal now under discussion in Islamabad, with a nationwide referendum envisaged before any constitutional change is formally introduced. The plan, reported on 8 November, could form the basis of a proposed 28th Constitutional Amendment, with preparatory work possibly beginning in the first quarter of 2027 and the amendment itself taken up in the first half of the year.

Under the framework described by sources familiar with the discussions, Punjab would be divided into four provinces, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan would each be split into three. Sindh would be divided into two administrative units. The total number of provinces would rise from four to twelve. No final decision has been taken, and the boundaries, administrative structures and constitutional process remain undecided, according to the Islamabad Post.

Referendum would come first

A central feature of the reported roadmap is that the referendum would be held before the amendment process begins. Sources quoted in the reporting say the vote would seek a public mandate for restructuring, so that the question is decided by voters rather than settled only through bargaining between political parties. The prime minister's Adviser on Political Affairs, Rana Sanaullah, has previously said that any referendum on creating new provinces would require parliamentary approval, and that parliament alone would decide whether provinces are created.

Supporters of the proposal argue that Pakistan's growing population, governance challenges and uneven distribution of development resources call for a fresh administrative model. They maintain that smaller provinces could improve service delivery, strengthen local government and bring decision-making closer to citizens, with particular benefits for underserved regions in infrastructure, education, healthcare and economic opportunity.

Political parties cautious

The proposal is already shaping up as politically contentious. The Pakistan Peoples Party, which has long presented itself as a defender of provincial autonomy under the 18th Amendment, is expected to scrutinise closely any plan that alters Sindh's boundaries. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, although it previously supported a separate South Punjab province, is expected to approach a broader nationwide restructuring with caution. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl is also expected to question the timing, the constitutional implications and the level of political consensus behind the idea.

The government has sent mixed signals on the subject. On 4 September, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal called for a national debate on administrative reform and proposed creating between 12 and 15 provinces, arguing that the existing structure had become increasingly centralised. On 30 October, however, he said the government was not drafting a 28th Amendment to create new provinces, and emphasised strengthening local government instead. The latest reported proposal is therefore not an officially approved government plan, and no amendment has been tabled.

High constitutional bar

Even if the proposal gains traction, the legal path is demanding. Under Article 239(4) of the Constitution, an amendment altering the limits of a province requires approval by at least two-thirds of the total membership of the affected provincial assembly before it can proceed through the federal parliamentary process. A constitutional amendment also needs the votes of two-thirds of the total membership of each house of parliament.

Constitutional experts warn that beyond amending the Constitution, the authorities would have to settle questions over provincial assemblies, representation in parliament, revenue sharing, the bureaucracy and administrative assets. For now, the 12-province plan remains an idea under discussion, with the proposed referendum and the 2027 timeline yet to receive formal government approval.