India's rupee was expected to open flat to marginally higher on Friday 30 October 2026, drawing support from a weaker US dollar and falling US Treasury yields, although a fresh surge in oil prices was expected to limit any gain.

The rupee had settled at 95.26 to the dollar on Thursday 29 October. In early trade on Friday, CNBC TV18 reported it opened marginally higher at 95.22, gaining 4 paise from the previous close. Traders had expected only a modest move, rather than a sharp recovery, with oil and central-bank intervention both in view.

The softer dollar followed a move into US government bonds as renewed worries about returns on large artificial-intelligence investments unsettled equity markets. The two-year US Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to its lowest level in seven weeks, while the 10-year yield slipped to 4.90%, down 46 basis points from its recent peak. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell to 101.70, as lower yields weighed on the currency. Asian currencies traded flat to modestly higher.

Why the relief may stay limited

A weaker dollar normally eases pressure on emerging-market currencies, because it reduces the strain from dollar-denominated costs. In this case, however, traders warned that the support could be limited, because the fall in yields was driven mainly by a shift towards safer assets rather than by an improving outlook.

Oil was the main offset. Brent crude futures climbed to a high of $117.84 a barrel amid concerns over supply disruption after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia. For India, a major oil importer, higher crude prices can raise the import bill and increase demand for dollars, pushing back against the rupee.

Traders warned the jump in oil prices could more than offset the relief from lower yields. Traders also said the rupee's next move would depend heavily on intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.

Sources: Reuters; CNBC TV18 via TradingView.