Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP) would beat Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists in the general election on 29 November but would need the right-wing Vox party to secure a parliamentary majority, according to the latest polls.

Three surveys published on Monday point in the same direction, although they differ on how large the right-wing lead would be and on how far the Socialists have recovered in recent weeks.

What the polls show

A SocioMetrica poll published by El Español projected around 200 seats in the 350-seat lower house for the PP and Vox combined. The Socialists would get 108 seats, two more than in the previous survey. The poll, based on 5,460 online interviews with a margin of error of three percentage points, showed a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right.

A survey by 40dB for El País showed the gap between the PP and the Socialists narrowing to two percentage points, with the Socialists advancing 1.8 points from the previous poll to 29.9 per cent of voting intentions. The PP stood at 31.9 per cent. Even so, the combined right wing would still win a working majority of around 190 seats. The survey covered 2,000 online respondents, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo pointed to the Socialists recovering some ground lost after last month’s deadly train crash and now likely to win 105 seats, but far behind the 199 seats projected for the PP and Vox together. That survey of 4,172 respondents had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

Campaign dominated by housing and the crash

The electoral campaign begins on 13 November and is expected to be dominated by housing, immigration and corruption, and by the reverberations of last month’s deadly train crash that triggered the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente.

The crash on the Madrid-Seville high-speed line killed 69 people and has become a central issue in the campaign. Sanchez has defended his government’s handling of the disaster and praised Puente, while the opposition has pressed the government over safety and accountability.

Left divided as vote nears

Spain’s hard-left parties were unable last month to agree on a common list of candidates, reducing Sanchez’s chances of staying in power at the head of a leftist coalition. The polls showed the Broad Front poised to win 10 to 15 seats, while its rival Podemos is at risk of losing its parliamentary representation.

An absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies requires 176 seats. On the current polls, neither the PP nor the Socialists can reach that figure alone, leaving Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, as the likely kingmaker if the right-wing bloc holds its lead.

Sanchez called the snap election after parliament rejected housing relief measures proposed by his minority government, bringing the vote forward from 2027. He has told supporters that on 29 November Spain will show it is “governed from Spain”, rejecting foreign political influence from any quarter.