Just over a third of firms in the UK offshore energy supply chain feel confident about the next 12 months, and £123 billion of investment is at risk, according to a new report from the industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK).

The findings come from OEUK's 2026 Supply Chain Report, Backing Britain's offshore energy supply chain, launched at the body's breakfast briefing in Aberdeen on Tuesday 10 November. The report warns that billions of pounds of investment are in jeopardy through to 2035 as confidence in the UK wanes.

The offshore energy sector contributes more than £36 billion a year to the UK economy and supports around 241,000 skilled jobs across oil and gas, offshore wind, carbon storage and hydrogen. OEUK's risked project pipeline identifies around £123 billion of capital investment over the next decade, including £17 billion in oil and gas, £86 billion in offshore wind and £20 billion in carbon capture and storage and hydrogen.

Eight in ten firms look overseas for growth

The report's survey of supply chain companies found that nine in ten derive more than a fifth of their revenue from oil and gas. That dependence has become a risk as investment decisions stall: eight in ten suppliers said they expected higher growth and investment outside the UK than within it.

More than half of the firms questioned said commercial conditions were worsening, and 46 per cent said tariffs and trade measures were having a negative impact on their business. Nearly four in ten respondents did not agree that correctly submitted invoices are paid on time, a long-running complaint in the sector. The North Sea Transition Authority tracks late payments by operators, but its remit does not extend to the large Tier 1 contractors.

There was also a brighter note. The survey found that 95 per cent of firms could expand their capacity if UK activity rose materially, suggesting the supply chain is ready to deliver if work is forthcoming. In last year's report, 60 per cent of respondents said they were already earning revenue from offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.

Industry calls for clearer pipelines

Katy Heidenreich, OEUK's supply chain and people director, said the UK needed clearer and more credible project pipelines, better procurement, earlier engagement with the supply chain, and stable fiscal, regulatory and market conditions that give businesses a reason to invest in Britain.

Steve Nicol, OEUK's supply chain champion and chief operating officer of operations at Wood, said the UK supply chain was ready to deliver, and that turning opportunity into contracted work would anchor critical capability in the UK, support secure and affordable energy, and ensure investment creates skilled jobs across the country.

OEUK called on the government to support the oil and gas industry while giving long-term certainty for wind and carbon capture and storage, to use public investment to unlock private capital, and to cut avoidable policy costs and regulatory delay. Industry, it said, must give suppliers a clearer timeline of work and involve them earlier to drive down cost and risk.

The report lands days after the Autumn Budget, with decisions on taxation, project approvals and market reform still shaping where energy capital flows. For the hundreds of businesses that stretch from Shetland to Southampton, the question the report poses is blunt: will Britain build its energy future at home, or buy it from abroad?