The Office for National Statistics will publish its first estimate of UK economic growth for July to September on Thursday 12 November, giving investors the first official reading of how the economy performed over the summer quarter, just one week after the Bank of England raised interest rates.

The figures, due at 7am, will be released alongside September's monthly GDP figure and industrial production and trade data. They arrive at a sensitive moment: the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November, its first increase since August 2023, and warned that further rises may be needed.

The committee voted 8-1 for the quarter-point rise. Catherine Mann, the sole dissenter, wanted a larger half-point increase to 4.25%. The Bank raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6%, but also warned that inflation could reach 4.8% in the second quarter of 2027.

That combination is the central tension for markets this week. If growth has held up, the economy may be able to absorb higher borrowing costs, strengthening the case for more increases. If it has weakened, the Bank faces a harder choice, because persistent inflation may stop it cutting rates to support activity.

Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that another increase was likely if the energy shock persisted. The conflict involving Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy prices higher and feeding into the Bank's inflation forecasts.

Money markets had fully priced four quarter-point rises by next September, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Some economists think that is too much. ING regards pricing beyond a follow-up rise in February as excessive, while Amundi Investment Institute's Alessia Berardi has suggested that one or two moves will be enough. Thursday's growth data is one of the inputs that could help settle that debate.

The release is the ONS's first quarterly estimate, based on the data available so far. Later releases will revise it as more complete information arrives from businesses, surveys and tax records, so markets tend to treat it as important but provisional. A single number rarely settles an argument on its own, and investors will also look at which parts of the economy drove the result.

Sterling, gilt yields and UK-focused shares are the markets most likely to react. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,638.43 on Tuesday 3 November after a 1.14% fall, and the FTSE 350 banks index fell 1.6% that day, with HSBC down 2%. The pound was trading around $1.3417 and about 83.53p per euro on Monday 2 November.

Domestically focused companies are the most exposed. Retailers such as Marks & Spencer and Next depend heavily on UK shoppers, while housebuilders and banks are sensitive to both growth and mortgage rates. The FTSE 100 as a whole earns much of its revenue overseas, so a move in sterling after the data can push the index in the opposite direction to domestic shares.

The week also brings US October consumer price inflation on Tuesday, which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a second estimate of eurozone third-quarter GDP on Friday. But for UK investors, Thursday morning is the main event: the first hard evidence of whether the economy can live with a 4% Bank Rate.