UK households buying heating oil entered November facing an average price of 109.1p per litre excluding VAT, or 114.6p including VAT, for 1,000 litres of kerosene. The figure, published on 1 November, comes as winter demand gathers pace and crude oil remains above $113 a barrel, leaving little seasonal relief for off-grid homes.

October's sharp climb

October was a volatile month for heating oil. The average 1,000-litre price for the month was 110.9p per litre excluding VAT, up from 106p in September, with daily prices ranging from 103.1p to 116.4p. Prices opened October at around 109.4p, dipped briefly towards 107.9p on 6 October, then surged from 8 October onwards, peaking at 113.6p on 9 and 14 October before easing back to 108.8p by 30 October.

Why crude is driving the bill

Brent crude averaged $107.31 a barrel across October, up sharply from levels closer to $91 in May, according to PriceTank's monthly summary. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, concern over Saudi infrastructure and a hurricane shutting Gulf of Mexico production all fed supply anxiety. That surge translated into a jump of nearly 5p per litre in heating oil over just two days in early October. Sterling, averaging 1.3284 against the US dollar in October and edging to 1.34 in November, offered only limited cushion against dollar-priced crude.

Regional gaps and the month ahead

Regional differences remain wide. Scotland, Northern Ireland and remote parts of the South West face higher delivered prices because of longer supply chains and delivery surcharges, while areas closer to import terminals in East Anglia and the South East tend to sit near or below the national average. PriceTank's one-month outlook points to a range of 109.0p to 115.0p per litre through November, with winter demand peaking and European gas prices also elevated. Comparing quotes and considering group buying remain the practical ways to cut the delivered cost.

Sources: PriceTank; Economies.com.