Retail sales volumes in Great Britain fell 0.4% in September 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), a larger drop than the 0.1% fall economists had expected. The decline followed a revised 0.7% rise in August, originally reported as 0.5%. Non-food stores and online spending both fell, with businesses reporting weaker demand for non-essential items and lower footfall as shoppers reined in spending before the festive season. Unseasonably warm weather was blamed for weak clothing and footwear sales, delaying demand for autumn and winter ranges.

Quarter still grew

The wider quarter still grew. Volumes in July to September rose 0.7% compared with April to June and were 1.5% higher than the same quarter of 2025, while September volumes were 0.8% above September 2025. The ONS said growth in the quarter was led by motor fuel, which has returned to monthly sales levels last seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, despite recent price rises at the pump. Food and drink sales also contributed to quarterly growth, helped by warm weather, although they fell back slightly in September.

Confidence slumps before Christmas trading

The monthly fall arrived alongside a sharp drop in consumer confidence. GfK's index fell 11 points to -24 in October, a fall reported as the steepest since the Brexit vote in 2016, with all measures decreasing. Economists quoted in coverage of the figures warned that households are becoming more cautious just as retailers enter the all-important festive trading period. The ONS figures cover Great Britain, are seasonally adjusted, and measure volumes, meaning the quantity of goods bought with price effects removed.

Sources: Business Live, The Retail Bulletin.