Planned changes to the UK's settlement rules could cost the country its next generation of academics, university leaders and international student groups have warned, after more than 1,300 people signed a letter condemning the proposals.

The warning, reported by Times Higher Education on 12 November, follows the government's publication of its response to the consultation on “earned settlement”, which sets out how migrants will qualify for indefinite leave to remain. Under the plans, time spent in the UK on a Student visa or a Graduate visa would no longer count towards settlement, and the long-residence route that allowed settlement after ten years of continuous lawful residence would close.

What the letter says

The letter was written on behalf of international doctoral researchers and doctoral graduates, university staff, supervisors and members of the public who support them. It argues that some people who have already begun doctorates planned their lives around the long-residence route, and warns that the changes will lead the UK to lose researchers it has trained, with consequences for British universities, the economy and wider society.

The UK Council for International Student Affairs (UKCISA) said the proposals would have a “significant and detrimental” effect on people who have invested time and money in their education in the UK. The organisation said the changes risked sending a deeply discouraging message to individuals who had committed themselves to the country, and described the plans as creating a hostile environment for students from overseas.

How settlement would change

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood set out the framework on 2 November in the government response, A Fairer Pathway to Settlement. The standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain would rise from five years to ten years for most migrants. People making an exceptional economic contribution, generally earning at least £125,141 for three years, could settle after three years, while higher earners, eligible public service workers and people with a qualifying British connection could settle after five years. Those who breached immigration rules or relied on specified public funds would face a 20-year wait.

The consultation received 204,667 responses. The Home Office has estimated that more than 500,000 people could face longer waits to settle as a result of the changes. Research Professional News reported that experts expect early career researchers and technical staff, who often start on lower salaries, to be among those pushed onto the ten-year route.

Not yet law

Importantly, none of this has changed the Immigration Rules yet. The framework is government policy set out in a consultation response, not law in force. The Home Secretary told Parliament the changes would begin to be laid in the December Immigration Rules and implemented over the course of 2027, with further guidance and a full impact assessment to follow. Until the rules change, the current five-year routes still apply, and settlement is decided under the rules in force when a decision is made.

Universities say the uncertainty alone is damaging. Doctoral study typically takes three to four years, so a researcher who then moves onto a Skilled Worker visa could find that none of their student years count, leaving them a decade away from permanent residence. Critics argue that this makes the UK less attractive than rival destinations for the scientists and scholars it trains. Supporters of the reform say settlement should be earned through contribution, and that the tiered system rewards higher earnings and public service.

What happens next

The government has said it will publish technical guidance and a full impact assessment before implementation, and the exact criteria for the fastest settlement routes remain subject to advice from the Migration Advisory Committee. Anyone affected should check the official position on GOV.UK rather than relying on summaries, as the detail may change when the Immigration Rules are published. The GOV.UK earned settlement consultation page carries the government response, and Times Higher Education's report sets out the academics' warning in full.