Ukraine's path to membership of the European Union is narrowing as the war drags on, with diplomats across the bloc privately doubting that Kyiv will join within the next decade, according to a Reuters report published on 11 November 2026.

Joining the EU soon is an important aim for Ukraine as it tries to complete its exit from Moscow's orbit. But in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states were privately cautious, pointing to formidable obstacles Kyiv and the EU must overcome before Ukraine can join.

"You go around and you realise that, in many countries, politicians don't expect Ukraine to join in 10 years," said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank. He added that any message that the EU is not serious about Ukraine's accession could have a demoralising effect on the country "that nobody in Europe wants to see".

Farmers' fears on the Polish border

The report opens in Oszczow-Kolonia, a village of about 70 people some 280 km southeast of Warsaw, near Poland's border with Ukraine. Polish farmer Miroslaw Halej, 63, who grows wheat, beets, rapeseed and beans, helped distribute food and clothing to refugees when Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. As the war ground on, his views began to shift.

His sympathy has given way to resentment that some of the people who arrived from Ukraine appear to be prospering while Poland's farmers worry about their own future. Halej has taken part in Polish farmers' protests over Ukrainian grain imports, fearing Ukraine's large, lower-cost agricultural sector could flood Europe with cheap farm produce. "The biggest worry is definitely that the prices of our products would drop," he said. "If there were a free market, we wouldn't stand a chance."

Public support is falling

Only 47% of EU residents say Ukraine should join in the coming years, down from 69% in March 2022, according to a survey published in October by Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German political foundation. In France and Poland, 57% of those polled opposed Ukrainian membership in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59%.

A senior European diplomat told Reuters that Ukraine's accession was not a realistic prospect in the next few years. Another said that with multiple national elections scheduled next year, many governments will be too busy to make the case for enlarging the bloc. Even in straightforward cases, it takes years of negotiations and legal reforms to meet the EU's standards. Membership must be approved by all 27 EU states, and France would be likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine's membership bid.

Cost and politics weigh on the debate

The EU has not published any recent estimate of the cost of Ukraine's accession. But far-right politicians are already highlighting the potential cost. France's Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for next year's presidential election, posted on X: "If Ukraine joined the European Union, we would be the first losers, doubly so," saying France would face "fierce unfair competition" and a cut to its share of EU farm subsidies.

Reforms must speed up, Commission says

The European Commission said in its enlargement report on 4 November that Ukraine would need to speed up reforms to meet its own goal of closing accession negotiations by the end of 2028, with a focus on rule of law standards, justice reform and tackling corruption. The report indicated that Moldova is advancing more quickly on reforms than Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said some scepticism in the EU was to be expected but added: "Getting Ukraine inside the European Union is beneficial for the European Union."

Alternative routes to closer ties

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed giving Ukraine a new status of "associate member" to allow Ukrainian officials to take part in EU summits and ministerial meetings but not vote. Ukraine says the idea is unfair because it would leave Kyiv without a voice in the EU. The European Commission has suggested gradually integrating candidate countries into EU programmes and sectors such as energy, transport, digital and defence, and imposing limits on support and market access for "sensitive agricultural products" from Ukraine. Halej said such measures might prompt him to rethink his opposition: "Saying, for instance, 'You can sell this much of this, and that much of that' - then maybe it could work. But as long as the market is uncontrolled, then no."

The United States is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, so EU membership may be Kyiv's best hope of claiming a geopolitical victory when the war ends, political analysts say.

Frequently asked questions

When did Ukraine become an EU candidate? European leaders granted Ukraine and Moldova candidate status in June 2022, shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion.