Ukraine's path to European Union membership is narrowing as the war drags on, with diplomats and voters across the bloc growing more sceptical about Kyiv joining in the coming years. More than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states told Reuters privately that formidable obstacles stand in the way, even as some European leaders say they hope to welcome Ukraine into the bloc soon.

Support falls across the bloc

A survey published in October by the Bertelsmann Stiftung found that only 47 per cent of EU residents say Ukraine should join in the coming years, down from 69 per cent in March 2022. In France and Poland, 57 per cent of those polled opposed Ukrainian membership in the coming years, while in Germany the figure was 59 per cent. The foundation's own release put opposition to granting full membership soon at 53 per cent.

Unanimity and the cost question

Membership must be approved by all 27 EU states, and France would be likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine's bid. Kyiv also faces the uncertainty of the war's outcome, deep-rooted corruption and the challenge of integrating a large country. The EU has not published a recent estimate of the cost of accession.

Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative, told Reuters that in many countries politicians do not expect Ukraine to join within 10 years. Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesman, Heorhii Tykhyi, said some scepticism was to be expected, adding: "Getting Ukraine inside the European Union is beneficial for the European Union." With the United States opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, EU membership may be Kyiv's best hope of a geopolitical victory when the war ends.