Italy’s UniCredit is set to secure unconditional approval from the European Commission for its acquisition of Germany’s second-biggest bank, Commerzbank, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

The Commission, which acts as the European Union’s competition enforcer, is due to decide on the deal by 16 November. Both the Commission and UniCredit declined to comment on the reports.

The clearance would be a major step towards creating one of Europe’s biggest cross-border banks, and it follows the European Central Bank’s approval of the deal last month.

What happens next

UniCredit chief executive Andrea Orcel said on Monday that all remaining regulatory approvals for the bank to take control of Commerzbank would arrive before the end of November, sooner than previously expected.

UniCredit already holds 47.59 per cent of Commerzbank’s share capital, or 49.65 per cent of the voting rights, after its exchange offer closed in July 2026. Control would pass to the Italian bank once the tendered shares are transferred, with a new governance structure and a plan called “Commerzbank Unlocked” expected in the first quarter of 2027.

A small number of approvals are still outstanding, including from Poland’s financial regulator over Commerzbank’s mBank subsidiary, the US Federal Reserve and the EU’s foreign subsidies clearance. Each condition must be met by 19 June 2027, with settlement no later than 2 July 2027.

Why the deal matters

The Commission’s approval would underline the regulatory push for cross-border mergers to create European banking champions able to compete with larger US rivals.

The deal has been politically sensitive in Germany, where the government cut the stake it acquired in the 2009 bailout of Commerzbank to 13.3 per cent. The EU watchdog had initially raised concerns about whether Berlin’s demand to keep two seats on Commerzbank’s supervisory board complied with EU law, the sources said.

UniCredit also reported record third-quarter results, with profit up 24 per cent, as investors welcomed the prospect of the takeover being completed.

The Commission’s decision, expected by 16 November, will be watched closely across Europe’s banking sector as a test of how far Brussels is willing to go in backing cross-border consolidation.

For Commerzbank, the outcome would end months of uncertainty. The Frankfurt-based lender, Germany’s second-largest bank, has been the subject of takeover speculation since UniCredit began building its stake, and Berlin has been wary of losing influence over a bank it rescued during the financial crisis.

For UniCredit, control of Commerzbank would create a banking group with a far stronger presence in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, alongside its existing operations in Italy and Central and Eastern Europe.