Washington has stepped up military deployments to Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar while Qatari mediators continue talks in Tehran, a build-up running alongside, not instead of, diplomacy.

The United States has sent at least 10 military transport aircraft to Ovda and Nevatim air bases in southern Israel in recent days, according to a Vietnam News Agency correspondent in Tel Aviv. The aircraft mainly departed from Texas, home to one of the US military's major air defence hubs. Israel's public broadcaster KAN also reported the arrivals, saying the aircraft were likely carrying air defence equipment. Additional US military aircraft have also been sent to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The deployment came as US media reported that Washington had warned some Gulf countries of the possibility of a short but high-intensity military campaign against Iran after the midterm elections on 3 November. That warning is reported, not confirmed, and US President Donald Trump has pledged not to attack Iran before the vote.

Mediation continues in Tehran

Qatar is mediating: a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on 30 October, and Tehran has confirmed receiving a letter from US Vice President JD Vance to senior security official Mohsen Rezaei, delivered by the Qatari envoys, but has not yet responded.

The sides remain at odds over sequencing: Washington wants to prioritise the nuclear issue, while Iran demands an end to the blockade of its seaports and sanctions on oil exports first.

Shipping incidents raise the stakes

On the water, the Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers had exploded in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command has rejected the mine claims. With both a build-up and a mediation track under way, the days after the US midterms are the window to watch.