The United States and Iran have been quietly negotiating an agreement that could prevent a return to all-out war, even as both sides continue to threaten further military action and neither has yet given ground on its core demands.

President Donald Trump has offered his clearest indication yet that intensified diplomacy could avert another major round of fighting. He told CNN on Sunday that renewed American military attacks were “highly unlikely” if Tehran made progress towards an agreement on its nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also told CBS’s 60 Minutes that he was “not looking to” escalate the war.

Trump went further on Monday after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House, saying he did not believe additional military action against Iran was necessary for now. “At this point, it won’t be necessary, taking the military action,” he said during a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.

But the president made clear that the military option remained available if circumstances changed. “Should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the United States of America is fully locked and loaded,” he said. “We don’t think there’ll be any reason to use it.”

Quiet talks through Qatar

Qatar, which is mediating between the two sides, has been circulating a framework document that both Washington and Tehran are amending. The process has been under way for weeks, possibly months, but diplomatic activity has accelerated since last Tuesday’s midterm elections, in which Republicans lost both houses of Congress.

Vice President JD Vance said afterwards that the war was among the reasons for the Republican losses. Trump told 60 Minutes that he did not disagree with that assessment, acknowledging that voters “didn’t like the war”, while strongly defending the decision to attack Iran and saying that if he had to make the decision again, his answer would be “an emphatic yes”.

Iran has sought to use the election results to press its negotiating position. “American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday.

Trump expressed optimism after Monday’s meeting that the conflict could soon end. “We’re seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon,” he said.

Wide gaps remain

Hopes of a deal are being tempered in Washington. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that he “wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough”, and later described the Iranian demands as “not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic”.

Publicly, Iran insists it will not negotiate with Washington over its nuclear programme or reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless seven preconditions are met, including ending the war on “all fronts” and lifting the maritime blockade. The specifics have yet to be made public.

Trump seeks to eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran describes as a matter of national sovereignty and says is for generating energy, not military purposes. Hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium remain hidden somewhere in Iran, and reports indicate Washington wants the stockpile diluted or transferred to another country for safekeeping.

Iran also wants billions of dollars in frozen assets released and sanctions eased, as well as compensation from the United States for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders in airstrikes at the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February.

What happens next

Both sides have played down recent attacks, a sign that neither wants to derail the talks. Some outlets report that the discussions have moved closer to agreement, and The New York Times has indicated that Iran is willing to re-engage in nuclear negotiations, although there has been no independent confirmation.

Yet the risk of a return to all-out war remains real. The United States still has a large military presence in the Middle East, vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to come under Iranian attack, and Washington has launched a new effort to block Tehran from using land routes to move advanced weapons and other materials.

For now, the quiet negotiations continue through Doha, with neither side willing to make the first public concession.