Democrats enter the final weekend before the 2026 midterm elections with the advantage nationally and favoured to take the House, while the battle for the Senate remains much closer, according to the latest polls, odds and forecasts. With just four days until the elections on Tuesday 3 November, the clearest picture comes from the polling averages: RealClearPolling's generic congressional ballot average puts Democrats ahead of Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, 51.4% to 43.2%.

The most recent polls included in the average consistently favour Democrats: Harvard-Harris puts them ahead 52% to 48%, the Economist/YouGov poll 50% to 41%, and Reuters/Ipsos 53% to 44%. The final Emerson College Polling survey, conducted 24-26 October among 1,000 likely voters, finds the generic Democrat ahead 52% to 42%, with President Donald Trump at 37% approval against 57% disapproval. Cost of living (34%) and fighting corruption (28%) top the issues voters say most affect their vote.

Rallies cancelled, tele-rallies instead

President Trump is projecting confidence even as he abruptly changes his final campaign push. He cancelled weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas, two states with unexpectedly competitive Senate races, and will instead hold tele-rallies reaching voters in nearly 20 states. Prediction markets have moved further toward Democrats, with Polymarket giving them a 94% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of taking the Senate, though market prices are not polls and can change rapidly.

The caution in the data matters. The generic ballot is not the same as seats: the national vote mostly predicts the House, while the Senate depends on a handful of states. A lead of eight points nationally could produce a very different Senate result depending on a few thousand votes in a few states. Polls can miss, particularly in close races. What the averages establish is a Democratic lead going into the final days, not a result.