The United States has sent at least 10 military transport aircraft to the Ovda and Nevatim air bases in southern Israel in recent days, as Iran tensions rose on 30 October. The aircraft mainly departed from Texas, according to a Vietnam News Agency correspondent in Tel Aviv. More US military aircraft have gone to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, fuelling speculation about renewed strikes against Iran after the 3 November midterms.

That speculation remains unconfirmed. An Israeli official told broadcaster KAN that both countries are preparing for whatever decision President Donald Trump makes, while stressing none has yet been taken. US media have reported that Washington warned some Gulf countries of a possible short, high-intensity campaign against Iran after the midterms, and US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper has reportedly briefed Mr Trump on options. Mr Trump struck a different tone on Friday, telling Kansas City radio he believed the war with Iran would end soon.

Diplomacy continues alongside the build-up

Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. A Qatari mediation delegation arrived in Tehran on 30 October to continue talks aimed at an agreement between the US and Iran. The sides remain divided over sequencing: Washington wants the nuclear issue addressed first, while Tehran demands the US first end its blockade of Iranian seaports and lift oil sanctions. Iran has also said it received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance but has not responded to it.

On the ground, the risks remain visible. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers exploded and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after using routes not authorised by Tehran. For now, the deployments indicate preparation for a possible confrontation; they do not establish that an attack has been ordered or that diplomacy has ended.