The United States releases its October inflation figures today, Tuesday 10 November, in the last consumer price report before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates in December.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October at 8:30am Eastern Time (1:30pm GMT). Economists expect a smaller monthly rise than in September, when a petrol-driven jump pushed annual inflation to 3.7%, its highest since May.

What economists expect

The Dow Jones consensus forecast calls for headline CPI to rise 0.3% on the month and core prices, which exclude food and energy, to rise 0.2%. FactSet's survey of economists points to a slightly smaller 0.2% headline rise, while ING expects 0.3%.

In September, headline CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over the year, with core prices up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year, according to the BLS.

No annual rate this time

The October report carries an unusual limitation: the BLS will not publish a year-over-year inflation rate for October. The government shutdown that ran from 1 October to 12 November 2025 prevented the collection of complete price data in October 2025, leaving no comparison month, so attention will fall on the month-on-month changes instead.

Households still feeling the squeeze

The inflation figures arrive against a backdrop of public frustration over prices. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday, only 21% of Americans approved of President Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living, and an NBC News exit poll found that 75% of midterm voters described the economy as either “poor” or “not so good”. September's 0.6% monthly jump in prices was driven largely by petrol, and fuel costs have been a persistent pressure on household budgets through the autumn.

Why the report matters for the Fed

The figures land 29 days before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on 8–9 December, and they are the last inflation reading the committee sees before it votes. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September 2026, its first increase since 2023, and held rates there on 28 October on a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring another increase.

Traders and policymakers will be watching whether October's figures confirm that inflation is cooling or staying hot. A softer reading would ease pressure for another rise in December, while a stronger one would strengthen the case for the Fed to act again. Producer prices follow on Friday, 13 November, completing the inflation picture for the week.