The United States has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections, according to people briefed on the conversations cited by the Wall Street Journal. This post reports what the Journal reported; the warning itself has not been independently confirmed by the White House.

Warning passed through diplomatic channels

The messages, passed through diplomatic and military channels, are among a growing set of signs that Washington and Israel are preparing for a possible new round of heavy combat operations, the report says.

Build-up described in the report

The report says US forces in the region have been restocking munitions, and that bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes. An additional aircraft carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are also said to be poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out. The US is also sending an additional Patriot missile-defence system to Israel from Texas, according to flight-tracking data and officials cited in the report.

No final decision, report says

President Trump has not decided to go ahead, the report says, but is leaning toward a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites. The alternative, it says, would be to try to cut a deal, and diplomatic efforts by regional mediators have continued without yet bearing fruit. The White House declined to comment on what it called sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.

Why markets are watching

At a rally last week, Trump said: “We may do another little Epic Fury” — referring to the heavy US and Israeli bombing campaign in the spring — “Or they'll agree.” Any renewed campaign would risk a major escalation in a region already unsettled by months of conflict, with direct implications for oil supplies, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and global energy prices. Sources: The Wall Street Journal (summarised by Moneycontrol via TradingView).