The United States has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing people briefed on the conversations. The warnings, delivered through diplomatic and military channels, are among a growing number of indications that the US and Israel are readying a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, aimed at degrading Tehran's strength and pushing it toward negotiations.

A warning, not a decision

President Donald Trump has not decided to go ahead but is leaning toward a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking told the newspaper. Military preparations reported alongside the warning include sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas, moving troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable, restocking munitions, and preparing bomber aircraft and jet fighters for strikes, with an additional aircraft-carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit poised to join roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month. The war, in its eighth month, is estimated to have cost $47.1 billion as of mid-October, about 60% of it, $29 billion, on munitions such as Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, according to estimates shared with lawmakers.

Preparations and the cost so far

The account rests on the Journal's reporting: the White House declined to comment on what it called sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, saying Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, and no US, Israeli, Gulf or Iranian official has commented on the record about the reported plans. Trump has said publicly that the US may renew attacks after the election, telling a rally last week that the US may do another little Epic Fury, the name of the spring bombing campaign, unless Iran agrees to a deal, while diplomatic efforts by regional mediators have continued without bearing fruit. Iran has warned it would hit economic and civilian targets across the region in response to any new campaign.

Sources: Wall Street Journal and New York Post.