Thailand's long lead over Vietnam as Southeast Asia's top tourist destination has narrowed sharply, with Vietnam closing the gap to 5.9 million visitors in the first ten months of 2026. Thailand welcomed 25.4 million foreign tourists in that period, compared with 19.5 million in Vietnam, according to data reported on Tuesday 10 November 2026.

The gap stood at nearly 22 million visitors in 2019, when Thailand received 39.9 million international arrivals against Vietnam's 18 million. By 2025 the difference had already fallen to 11.8 million, with Thailand at about 33 million arrivals and Vietnam at 21.2 million. The latest figures show the convergence accelerating.

Vietnam gains in key markets

Vietnam's growth has been driven by expanded direct flights and strong gains in markets long important to Thailand. In the first nine months of 2026, Thailand logged about 1.27 million Russian tourists, largely unchanged from a year earlier, while Vietnam welcomed around 1.13 million Russians, up 160.6 percent from about 430,000 in the same period last year.

Vietnam also recorded a 33 percent increase in Indian arrivals and an 18.1 percent rise in Malaysian visitors. Thailand, by contrast, saw Malaysian arrivals fall 15.2 percent, a drop linked in part to border checkpoint delays and weather disruption, while growth from Indian and regional markets has increasingly favoured Vietnam.

Thai operators warn of lost competitiveness

A survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce found that 59.1 percent of tourism operators believe Thailand is less competitive than its Asian rivals. Operators pointed to border delays, inconsistent entry procedures and changing cost-value perceptions, alongside weaker flight connectivity.

Wichian Kaewsomboon, director of the university's Trade Strategy Institute, noted that Vietnam has aggressively expanded direct point-to-point air routes, while Thailand remains heavily dependent on multi-leg or Middle Eastern transit connections for several long-haul markets. Border congestion at southern transit hubs such as Sadao has added to the pressure.

Forecast cut for 2026

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has revised its full-year 2026 forecast for Thailand downwards to roughly 31.5 million arrivals, a 4.5 percent decline year on year. Thanavath Phonvichai, the university's president, said the industry must confront structural issues rather than blame wider economic headwinds alone.

Proposed responses include expanding direct air routes, improving immigration and border processes, and developing higher-value experiences and digital services. For now, Thailand remains ahead, but the figures show its once-commanding lead over Vietnam has shrunk to its smallest in years.

Sources: Thailand Business News and ASEAN Now.