Vietnam has held on to its place as the world's second-largest rice exporter, ahead of Thailand, with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projecting that its exports will pass 8 million tonnes in 2026. The November update from the department puts Vietnam behind only India in the global rice trade, a position it is expected to keep into 2027 even as its two main rivals face weaker shipments.

The gap between Vietnam and Thailand has widened through the year. By the end of September 2026, Vietnam had exported about 6.4 million tonnes of rice worth 3.1 billion dollars, while Thailand had shipped nearly 5 million tonnes worth 2.9 billion dollars, according to the Thai Ministry of Commerce. Vietnam was therefore about 1.4 million tonnes ahead after nine months. By the end of October, Vietnam's export volume had risen further to about 6.8 million tonnes, and with trading momentum still strong, passing 8 million tonnes for the full year is seen as a realistic outcome.

Thailand and India forecast to slip

The USDA expects Thailand's rice exports to fall by 200,000 tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes, while India, the world's leading exporter, is projected to see a fall of 500,000 tonnes to about 22.5 million tonnes, equivalent to about 39 per cent of total global rice exports. The department's outlook points to concerns that El Niño could weigh on production and shipments from both countries, while Vietnam's export outlook is expected to continue into 2027.

Food stockpiling is adding to demand in many importing countries, as governments build reserves in case climate disruption, including El Niño, affects harvests. That trend has worked in Vietnam's favour, with buyers looking to secure supply while prices and availability remain uncertain.

Philippines and China drive demand

The Philippines remains Vietnam's largest rice market by a wide margin. It accounted for 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's rice export market share in the first eight months of 2026, as the country increased imports to build reserves and prepare for possible supply shortages linked to El Niño. China has become the second-largest market, accounting for about 17.4 per cent over the same period after spending nearly 505 million dollars to import more than 1 million tonnes of Vietnamese rice in the first eight months of the year, a sharp rise on the same period last year.

The concentration of sales is also a risk. More than 64 per cent of Vietnam's rice exports go to just two markets, the Philippines and China, leaving exporters exposed if demand in either country changes suddenly. Diversifying partners is therefore a priority for the industry, even as volumes remain strong.

Quality rice lifts value

Vietnam's rice industry is also shifting towards higher-value grain rather than competing on volume alone. Data released by the Vietnam Food Association in October 2026 showed fragrant and high-quality rice accounted for nearly 68 per cent of total rice exports, while common white rice made up just over 19 per cent.

About 70,000 tonnes of rice grown under a sustainable development project covering 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta has been granted the "Green Vietnamese Rice with Low Emissions" label. The project is presented as a step towards building a Vietnamese rice brand linked to quality standards and environmentally friendly production, at a time when buyers are paying closer attention to how food is grown.

Sources: Rice News Today, AgriInsite