The World Bank has forecast that global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven largely by the war in the Middle East, according to its Commodity Markets Outlook published on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Energy prices are projected to rise 32% this year, reversing three years of declines, while Brent crude is expected to average $91 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. The Bank said the conflict had drawn down oil inventories and left the world more exposed to further supply shocks.

Energy leads the rise

Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in 40 years outside the 2020 pandemic shock. Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, as disrupted grain shipments, the threat of El Nino to harvests, and higher fuel and fertiliser costs push up agricultural costs. Fertiliser prices are expected to rise 14% in 2026, metals prices by 25% to a new high, and precious metals prices by 40%, amid demand for safe-haven assets during geopolitical uncertainty.

Warning for poorer countries

The Bank's deputy chief economist, Ayhan Kose, said commodity markets were being hit by several major shocks at once, warning that rising energy costs and trade disruption were pushing up prices across markets, threatening inflation, food insecurity and weaker economic growth. The Bank said it had already provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries affected negatively by the war in the Middle East. It cautioned that further escalation in the Middle East conflict or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push energy prices above its baseline forecasts, although overall commodity prices are projected to fall 7% in 2027.

Sources: World Bank, Reuters.