A new Lord Ashcroft poll has given Kemi Badenoch a welcome boost, putting the Conservatives eight points ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, although Labour remains comfortably in front.

The survey puts Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent and Reform UK on 18 per cent. The Greens stand on 10 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent, the SNP on 3 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 1 per cent, with other parties on 4 per cent. The poll was carried out between 29 October and 2 November among 5,253 people.

The eight-point Conservative lead over Reform is five points wider than a month ago, when the gap stood at just three points. For Badenoch, who has spent much of her leadership trying to persuade former Conservative voters who switched to Reform to return to the party, it is an important development.

Lord Ashcroft's survey differs from most polls by asking people how likely they think they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would pick in a hypothetical contest tomorrow. Writing about the findings, he said the two main parties were showing signs of life since the conference season, with combined support for Labour and the Conservatives creeping up while Reform and the Greens fall back.

He also found that both Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Badenoch have more voters saying they are doing a good job than a bad one, which he described as a startling reversal of recent history for a prime minister and an opposition leader. In his recent focus groups, people praised Burnham's social media presence, his plans for a National Care Service and what they called his "moral compass".

Voters who spoke warmly of Badenoch said she seemed strong, direct, principled and articulate, with more common sense and "better energy" than her recent predecessors. Several noted with approval the Conservative plan, unveiled at last month's party conference, to scrap inheritance tax on family homes.

The poll comes as Badenoch steps up her attacks on Burnham, arguing that his EU reset will cost each working family money and warning that a youth mobility deal could open the jobs market to under-30s from the EU. Her strategy is increasingly clear: present the Conservatives as the party of lower taxes, tighter public spending and economic credibility, and establish herself as the main challenger to Labour.

For Farage, the figures are unwelcome. Reform built much of its support by attracting former Conservative voters who had become disillusioned with the party. If those voters begin returning to the Conservatives, Farage could find his position as the principal challenger to Labour under pressure. His party has also faced questions over donations and the conduct of some activists, which Ashcroft said had combined to stall Reform's momentum.

Even so, the wider polling picture is less dramatic than this single survey suggests. Other recent polls have shown Reform still competitive with, and sometimes ahead of, the Conservatives. Immigration also remains a major obstacle for Badenoch, with research suggesting many Reform supporters remain distrustful of the Conservatives on their most important issue.

Ashcroft cautioned against declaring that the political realignment of the last decade had been cancelled. He noted that many voters have not forgotten the chaos of the Johnson-Truss era, and that Burnham, barely more than a hundred days into the job, still faces two big unresolved questions: how the country will live within its means, and its future relationship with the European Union.

On the question of an early election, Ashcroft found little appetite among voters. Only a quarter want a contest as soon as practically possible, and Labour supporters are even less keen, partly because they think a later date boosts Labour's chances, but mostly because they want Burnham to deliver something tangible and improve their lives. A single poll is a snapshot, not a prediction, and the battle for the right of British politics is far from over.