Australia's inflation picked up in September 2026, lifting the monthly consumer price index to 4.3% year on year, up from 4.0% in August and above the 4.2% forecast. Monthly CPI rose 0.8% in September, up from 0.4% in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics release reported on 28 October.

Fuel drives the September rise

Quarterly headline CPI rose 1.3% in the third quarter, up from 0.6% in the prior quarter, for an annual quarterly rate of 3.9%. Automotive fuel rose 9.4% month on month in September, after a 14.8% rise in August. Housing rose 5.2% year on year and transport 8.7% year on year, with housing the largest contributor to annual inflation.

November decision in focus

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean rose 1.0% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, above the bank's own 0.8% projection. Reuters reported that stubbornly hot underlying pressures cemented expectations of a further rate rise.

The RBA cash rate stands at 4.60%, after four rises in 2026. Its next decision is on 3 November 2026, with market pricing for a rise reported at around 80% to 85%, with sources differing within that range.

Sources: Reuters and ActionForex, citing the Australian Bureau of Statistics.