Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on Monday evening at 17:25 GMT, in his first scheduled remarks since the Bank raised Bank Rate to 4% last week. Markets will be listening for any signal on whether a further rise is coming, and when.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by eight to one on 4 November to lift Bank Rate by a quarter of a point, from 3.75% to 4%, in the first rise of this cycle. The single dissenter, Catherine L. Mann, wanted a half-point increase. Nobody on the committee voted to leave rates unchanged.

The Bank said the rise was warranted by inflationary pressure building in the pipeline, driven by higher energy prices. UK consumer price inflation reached 3.5% in September, and the Bank now expects it to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year. Its November Monetary Policy Report projects inflation averaging 4.9% in the second quarter of 2027, almost a full point above today's Bank Rate.

At his press conference on 5 November, Bailey was direct about what comes next. He said that in the absence of a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, the case for a further quarter-point rise, without any commitment on when it would come, would be quite strong. He also stressed that the rise should not be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes, and that monetary policy cannot tackle the source of the problem. In the Bank's adverse scenario, inflation could reach 6%, with interest rates potentially hitting 6% too.

The pound barely moved on the decision. Sterling closed the week at 1.3385 against the dollar, almost exactly where it started it, after touching its high for the week two days before the vote. Against the euro it finished at 1.1988. Forecasters see the pound trading between 1.3250 and 1.3550 against the dollar this week, and between 1.1875 and 1.2100 against the euro.

Bailey is the first of three Bank policymakers to speak within 48 hours. Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks on Tuesday lunchtime and Chief Economist Huw Pill on Tuesday evening, with the week's biggest release, US consumer price inflation, landing between them. UK third-quarter GDP follows on Thursday, a direct test of the Bank's own estimate of 0.7% growth.

The Bank's own survey of market participants puts the median path at 4% in November and 4.25% in February, and the market curve was peaking at 4.75% as policymakers walked into the press conference. The next rate decision is due on 17 December. What Bailey says on Monday evening about February is the likeliest source of a sterling move this week.