Bitcoin traded below $74,000 on Wednesday, 11 November, changing hands at about $73,999 after hotter-than-expected US inflation data strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in December. The largest cryptocurrency fell less than 1% over the previous 24 hours, holding up better than many traders had feared after the inflation surprise.

Bitcoin had dropped to around $72,700 on Tuesday before recovering to trade near $74,700. The question now is whether that resilience is a sign the selling is easing, or simply a pause before another leg lower.

Hot CPI data lifts rate-hike bets

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% rise economists had forecast. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.3% for a third month in a row, against expectations of 0.2%.

The figures prompted traders to price in a 90% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already said he supported a 25-basis-point rise in December and that a 50-basis-point move should be considered if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher, which is exactly what happened.

Higher rates and higher Treasury yields make risk assets less attractive and raise the opportunity cost of holding speculative assets such as Bitcoin. That is a difficult backdrop for crypto, which has been falling for most of the past week.

ETF selling slows but continues

What has changed is the pace of selling from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The funds lost $95 million on Tuesday, a fourth straight day of net outflows, but that was down from $201 million on Monday, $412 million on Friday and $430 million on Thursday.

Futures traders took the brunt of Tuesday’s move, with liquidations jumping 288% to $725 million, according to CoinGlass. Stablecoins are tight too: the market capitalisation of Tether’s USDT has dropped $6.6 billion over 60 days, the biggest 60-day contraction since CryptoQuant’s data began in 2022 and more than double the drop that followed the collapse of FTX four years ago. The Coinbase Premium, a gauge of US demand, has been negative for 30 straight days.

Key levels traders are watching

Bitcoin is now hovering around its 200-day moving average, near $73,200 by CryptoQuant’s calculation, which the firm says separates a shallow correction from a deeper one. It is also below its 365-day average of $76,400, which CryptoQuant says must be reclaimed to restore a bullish structure.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a gauge of cycle strength, has dropped to 20 from 90 on 13 October. That is the same reading seen in April 2025, just before the market bottomed, although the firm warns the same signals can also mark the start of a deeper correction.

Bitcoin’s immediate support stands around $72,500 to $73,000. A sustained loss of that area would bring $70,000 back into focus, while on the upside the price needs to reclaim roughly $75,000 to $76,000 before the short-term picture starts improving.

Altcoins under heavier pressure

Bitcoin is down close to 5% over the past week and roughly 12% over the past month, but Ethereum and the large altcoins have generally performed even worse. Ethereum was trading near $2,050, XRP was around $1.06 and Solana was close to $83, all well below their levels of a week ago.

Earlier in the week, more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated as Bitcoin, Ethereum and other large cryptocurrencies broke important support levels, and every rebound since has struggled to hold. As long as inflation stays hotter than expected and markets keep pricing in further Fed rises, crypto is likely to struggle to build a lasting recovery. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.