Brent crude closed on Friday 23 October 2026 at 116.72 dollars a barrel, its highest close in nearly six months and its strongest since late April. US West Texas Intermediate settled at 103.27 dollars, as markets priced in a larger geopolitical risk premium after a week of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Why prices jumped

The rally followed reports of attacks on shipping in the Gulf, Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, and fresh fears that supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted. Brent had earlier traded above 115 dollars during Friday's session, and the settlement at 116.72 dollars marked a rise of more than 3 dollars on the day in some reports. Analysts at ING were quoted as saying oil prices remained well-supported because the market is pricing in a significant risk premium, which would only erode if flows continue uninterrupted.

What traders are watching next

Despite the price surge, Gulf oil exports were reported to be back within about 10 percent of pre-war levels, which is why some analysts describe the rally as driven more by fear of escalation than by an actual supply cut. Longer-dated oil for April 2027 was still trading above 100 dollars, and US diesel hit a record 6.52 dollars a gallon in one analysis. Forecasts vary widely: one bank's base case puts Brent near 74 dollars if a ceasefire holds, while an extended war could take it towards 130 dollars, and badly damaged infrastructure towards 150 dollars. Those are forecasts, not certainties, and this brief is market reporting, not investment advice.

Gold held near 4,008 dollars an ounce at the end of the week, down 1.29 percent on the week, while Bitcoin dipped briefly below 80,000 dollars.