Markets enter the week of 26 to 30 October with geopolitics still setting the tone for oil and gold, and three central banks due to decide on interest rates. Brent crude finished last week at about 117 dollars a barrel, its highest level since late April, after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and talk of renewed United States action against Iran lifted the risk premium. Gold, by contrast, ended the week at around 4,000 dollars an ounce, lower on the week, as higher oil kept expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate rise in play.

The central bank calendar

The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, alongside United States GDP and PCE inflation data on Thursday. Market pricing puts only about a 7 to 8 per cent chance on an October Fed move, but still around 80 to 90 per cent on a December rise, according to the week-ahead outlook. That rate link matters: dearer oil lifts inflation expectations, and a central bank still tightening is a headwind for a metal that pays no yield.

Levels traders are watching

The outlook puts Brent in a broad 108 to 122 dollar range for the week, gold between 3,900 and 4,150 dollars, silver between 51.50 and 58 dollars, Bitcoin between 78,500 and 85,000 dollars and Ethereum between 2,250 and 2,550 dollars. Gold fell about 4 per cent on the week and silver more than 5 per cent, while Brent rose more than 6 per cent. These are forecasts, not investment advice, and they can move quickly on Fed or Middle East headlines.

Sources: NordFX Weekly Forecast, Capital Street FX