Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, for the first time since 31 August, as traders unwound the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil prices sharply higher in recent weeks.

Brent futures were down 3.15% at $89.65 a barrel at 13:34 GMT, according to Reuters, after falling 5.85% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 2.68% to $84.52 a barrel at the same time.

The move extended a steep two-day slide. Brent had already settled 5.85% lower on Monday, 9 November, after sliding to its lowest level since 31 August, as signs emerged that the United States might step back from further military action against Iran.

Trump holds off new strikes on Iran

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that US military action against Iran was not necessary "at this point", easing concerns about prolonged disruption to Middle East oil supply. He said he planned to hold off on new military strikes for the time being after appeals from countries in the region, including from Qatar's prime minister during talks at the White House.

Trump also said the US would keep its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz in place for now. That leaves uncertainty over when Iranian crude exports might resume and when shipping through the strait, a key route for global oil, might return to normal.

"The market continues to prioritise President Trump's more conciliatory tone toward Iran since the midterms," Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters. He added that, while attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz were still occurring, they had not escalated in a way that forced a fresh risk premium into the market.

Senior US and Gulf officials have nevertheless cast doubt on the chances of an imminent peace deal between Washington and Tehran. Iranian security council chief Mohsen Rezaei said the US should stop what he called "fake news about imaginary talks".

OPEC output rises as surplus grows

Supply developments added to the downward pressure on prices. A Reuters survey found that OPEC crude production increased by 1.38 million barrels a day in October to 22.87 million barrels a day, about 90% of its February level. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq led the recovery.

Combined crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% to 15.53 million barrels a day, back in line with levels at the start of the year, according to the survey data reported alongside the price move.

JPMorgan, cited by Reuters, estimated that the global oil market recorded a surplus of about 1.4 million barrels a day in October, signalling a return to excess supply. That surplus, together with the prospect of more barrels reaching the market if diplomacy progresses, has weighed on prices.

Russian and Ukrainian officials were also due to meet on Tuesday for two days of US-brokered talks, their first since February, after Trump suggested last week that a broad peace deal was possible in their four-and-a-half-year war and could incorporate Europe's security.

What traders are watching next

For now, the market is balancing two opposing forces. On one side, easing tensions and rising OPEC output point to more supply in an already well-supplied market. On the other, the US naval blockade remains in place, Iranian exports have been held at zero since September, and any breakdown in talks could quickly rebuild the risk premium.

Traders will also be watching the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, due on 10 November, for its official estimates of prices and supplies after the recent developments. Oil prices move through the day, so the figures in this report are a snapshot at the times stated, not a closing price.

Reuters: Oil falls as Trump downplays prospect of escalation with Iran