Brent crude fell by more than $1 a barrel in early trading on Thursday 12 November 2026, as hopes for progress in peace talks over the Middle East and the war in Ukraine took some of the fear out of the oil market. Brent futures were down $1.14, or 1.2%, at $91.62 a barrel by 0141 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.04, or 1.2%, to $85.49 a barrel.

The move reversed part of Wednesday's rise. Brent had climbed on Wednesday after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, with Brent reported up 2.4% at $93.69 a barrel at the London close. Thursday's early fall left the international benchmark back below $92, and well below the high of $118 a barrel it reached less than two weeks ago.

Why oil prices fell on 12 November

Traders pointed to signs that diplomatic efforts behind the scenes were making headway. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed a major prisoner exchange at two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi that ended on Wednesday, although US mediators said differences remained on other major issues, including territory.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said markets were falling on expectations that efforts were under way to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and that it was unlikely the Iran war would escalate ahead of the US-China summit next week. That combination reduced the risk premium that had been built into oil prices during the recent escalation.

Oil had risen sharply in late October and early November as tensions around Iran pushed Brent above $110 a barrel. The pullback since then reflects a market reassessing how likely a wider disruption to supplies really is, rather than any change in physical oil production reported so far.

What traders are watching next

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due on Thursday, delayed by a day because of the US national holiday on Wednesday. The figures on US crude stocks and fuel demand are watched closely because they show whether the world's largest oil consumer is drawing down inventories or building them up.

Traders will also be watching for any further word from the peace talks and from next week's US-China summit. Any sign that talks have stalled, or that tensions around Iran are rising again, could push prices back up quickly, as the sharp moves of the past two weeks have shown.

What lower oil prices mean in the UK

A lower Brent price can ease pressure on fuel costs over time, because Brent is the benchmark used to price much of the crude refined into petrol and diesel in the UK and Europe. Pump prices do not move in lockstep with Brent, however. Refining costs, distribution, taxes and the strength of sterling against the dollar all affect what drivers pay at the forecourt, so a fall in crude does not guarantee an immediate fall at the pump.

For the wider economy, cheaper oil can help to ease inflationary pressure, since energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing and heating. That is one reason oil prices are watched closely by policymakers as well as by traders, particularly when inflation data has been running hotter than expected.

Brent and WTI prices move throughout the day, and the figures in this report are those reported in early trading on Thursday 12 November 2026. The direction of the market for the rest of the session will depend on the US inventory data and on any further developments in the diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Sources: Reuters; OKX