A changing of the guard

Friday marked a changing of the guard in the oil market, as the Brent crude contract traders have watched all month expired — and a cheaper contract took its place as the benchmark.

Brent futures for December, which expired on Friday, advanced $1.20, or 1.04%, to $116.08 a barrel by 0323 GMT, according to Reuters. The more actively traded January contract gained $1.39 to $112.19. US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.37, or 1.34%, to $103.37.

Why the headline price will fall on Monday

The gap between the two Brent contracts matters for anyone reading Monday's prices. From next week, the headline Brent price will refer to the January contract, which trades about $4 below the expiring December contract. A lower quoted price on Monday would therefore reflect the contract switch, not necessarily a sudden easing in the market.

For the month as a whole, Brent was on course to finish nearly 11% higher, with WTI heading for a 14% jump.

Military options briefing lifts the risk premium

The fresh upward push on Friday followed reports that Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper briefed President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday on military options against Iran, alongside Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and other senior officials. The Wall Street Journal first reported the briefing.

Analysts said continued military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with doubts about a diplomatic breakthrough, was keeping prices elevated on expectations of further escalation in coming weeks. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said uncertainty made forecasting difficult, but that he expected crude to trade in a higher $70 to $90 range even after the conflict ends, compared with $60 to $70 before the war, because of renewed-hostilities risk and the need to rebuild inventories.

Sources: Reuters (via KRRO)