Burberry reports its half-year results on Thursday 12 November, in the first big test of whether the luxury brand's turnaround under chief executive Joshua Schulman is turning into real sales growth.

UBS expects second-quarter retail sales of £425 million, down 1% year on year but up 1% at constant currency, with like-for-like sales growth of 1%. That would mean like-for-like sales turning positive after seven consecutive quarters in negative territory, a milestone investors have been waiting for since Schulman's Burberry Forward plan began.

The bank expects first-half operating profit, measured as EBIT, of just £14 million, with profits for the full year largely skewed to the second half, in line with the company's own guidance. The message is that the recovery is real but still fragile, and that the second half of the year will have to do most of the work.

The first quarter gave the bulls something to work with. Retail revenues grew 5% to £455 million, driven by particular strength in the Americas, up 12%, and Greater China, up 9%. Asia Pacific grew 3%, with South Korea up 11% on stronger domestic and tourist spending, although Japan fell 2% as Chinese tourist numbers continued to decline. Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa fell 3%, hit by the fallout from the Middle East conflict and lower tourist spending.

It was the seventh consecutive quarter of improvement since the new chief executive was installed, and the brand's emphasis on the outerwear for which it is traditionally known is outperforming expectations. Sales to Generation Z customers rose by a double-digit percentage in the first quarter, with a strong contribution from Greater China, suggesting the brand is winning over the younger shoppers luxury houses need to survive.

UBS says investors will focus on six things on Thursday: any pricing the brand has taken in response to US tariffs and other measures to offset them, while profitability remains depressed; performance by product category as Burberry returns to its core outerwear; the outlook for wholesale orders in the second half, as a leading indicator of how the brand is performing under Schulman; sales growth by customer group, and especially spending by Chinese nationals, given recent signs of improvement in mainland China; the impact of currency movements, which the bank puts at a £15 million headwind on profits for the year; and comments on the latest trading trends and the outlook for the third quarter, given the late timing of the results.

The stakes are high because of where Burberry has come from. The group described its full-year results in May as a meaningful inflection point, and with good reason. The previous year had included a change of chief executive, the suspension of the dividend and a first-half loss that sent the shares into a tailspin. The brand is regaining momentum, but the shares have still fallen by 18% so far this year and by 37% over the last two years.

Thursday is a heavy day for London markets more broadly. Alongside Burberry, first-half results are due from 3i, B&M European Value Retail and Qinetiq, trading updates from Rolls-Royce, Aviva, Persimmon and Spirax, and the first estimate of UK third-quarter GDP. Burberry's numbers will be read as a bellwether not just for one brand, but for the wider luxury sector, which has struggled with weak demand even as Burberry's own sales have begun to recover.

The company's own outlook has been optimistic but not cavalier. It recognises that the transformation is still in its early stages, and that fashion is a fickle business. A brand that drifted away from its traditional British traits of heritage and innovation, which held such appeal for overseas buyers and tourists, still needs to re-establish them fully. Thursday's results will show whether the seventh quarter of improvement has finally become a return to growth.