Next week will be a very big week for markets, with several major central bank policy meetings and a run of top-tier US data. The most important events, in order of likely importance, are the US Federal Reserve policy meeting, US core PCE inflation, US advance GDP, the European Central Bank meeting, the Bank of Japan meeting, the Bank of Canada meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, Australian inflation and the UK Budget.

Fed first

The Federal Reserve meets on 27-28 October, with a policy release on 28 October. Traders will be watching for any signal on interest rates after a week in which surging oil prices revived inflation fears: Brent crude rose more than 6% over the week to roughly $117 a barrel, while US crude finished above $103, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of wider Middle East supply disruption drove the rally. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which makes it harder for central banks to cut rates soon. US GDP and core PCE inflation data follow on 29 October.

What last week left behind

Precious metals moved the other way last week: gold lost about 4%, falling below $4,000 an ounce, and silver dropped by more than 5%, as dollar strength and rate concerns weighed on demand. Bitcoin surrendered its early-week gains and is now very close to breaking below $80,000, with roughly $636 million of withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday adding selling pressure. Asian technology shares also felt the spillover from Wall Street's sell-off, although Hong Kong and mainland Chinese benchmarks rebounded on Friday. Volatility increased last week, with 26% of notable currency pairs moving by more than 1%, and is likely to be higher again this week because so many major decisions are due.