China releases its October inflation figures at 01:30 GMT on Monday, the first major data release of a busy week for world markets. European traders will read the numbers before the London open, with the outcome shaping expectations for commodity demand, oil prices and the miners and energy stocks listed in London.

Consumer price inflation is forecast at around 0.8% year on year, edging down from 0.9% in September, with most estimates clustered between 0.7% and 0.9%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is expected to hold near 1%. Producer price inflation, by contrast, is forecast to rise to around 5.2% to 5.3%, from 5% in September, when it hit a four-year high.

The gap between the two readings is the story. Factory-gate prices are racing ahead while consumer prices barely move, which suggests manufacturers are absorbing much of the cost increase rather than passing it on to households. That points to weak pricing power in a soft domestic economy, and it squeezes industrial profit margins.

Consumer demand has been subdued but steady. Spending ahead of the National Day Golden Week holiday in early October offered some support, although purchases brought forward before the break diluted its impact on the month as a whole. Falling pork prices weighed on food prices, while higher fuel prices constrained spending on travel and discretionary goods.

Industrial prices have found support in elevated crude oil prices amid recurring disruption in the Middle East, alongside seasonal restocking during the September to October construction peak. Energy costs have been a key driver of the acceleration in producer prices.

For markets, a soft consumer reading would keep expectations alive for further policy support from Beijing, which would weigh modestly on the yuan. Weak consumer prices also argue against a strong pickup in China's appetite for raw materials, which matters for London-listed miners. Firm producer prices mainly reflect the energy shock already under way rather than new demand strength.

Chinese equities rebounded strongly over the past week after recent weakness. The MSCI China Index gained 7.1% in the week to Thursday 5 November, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.53%. October trade figures follow on Tuesday, and money supply, new loans and total social financing are due on Friday. US consumer price inflation lands on Tuesday and UK third-quarter GDP on Thursday, making this one of the most data-heavy weeks of the month for global markets. Analysts will also watch whether the numbers change the odds of further stimulus from Beijing before the end of the year.